Expected Vs. Actual Save Percentage

Jonathan Willis
April 27 2009 01:47PM

Luongo

Gabriel Desjardins of behindthenet.ca does a study at the end of each season that attempts to measure difficulty of shots that every NHL goaltender faces. The methodology can be found here, and it’s an interesting look at a statistic that’s largely swayed by team ability.

His results for 2008-09 are out; here’s a look at Western Conference goaltenders this season (all numbers at even-strength, minimum of 30GP over the last two seasons):

Player Name | Expected SV%| Actual SV% | Difference

Nikolai Khabibulin | .902 | .927 | +.025 Roberto Luongo | .906 | .931 | +.025 Jonas Hiller | .906 | .927 | +.021 Pekka Rinne | .907 | .921 | +.014 Chris Mason | .909 | .923 | +.014 Steve Mason | .904 | .917 | +.013 Dwayne Roloson | .909 | .920 | +.011 Dan Ellis | .903 | .911 | +.008 Evgeni Nabokov | .907 | .915 | +.008 Ty Conklin | .908 | .913 | +.005 Josh Harding | .919 | .922 | +.003 Nik Backstrom | .919 | .921 | +.002 Curtis Sanford | .910 | .912 | +.002 Matheiu Garon | .906 | .907 | +.001 Ilya Bryzgalov | .911 | .911 | EV J-S Giguere | .910 | .905 | -.005 Chris Osgood | .901 | .894 | -.007 Jason Labarbera | .912 | .905 | -.007 Marty Turco | .906 | .898 | -.008 Miikka Kiprusoff | .908 | .899 | -.009 Erik Ersberg | .914 | .904 | -.010 Andrew Raycroft | .916 | .900 | -.016 Peter Budaj | .915 | .896 | -.019 Manny Legace | .911 | .882 | -.029

Some other notables who played fewer games:

Jeff Deslauriers | .913 | .900 | -.013 Curtis McElhinney | .913 | .893 | -.020

No real surprises on that list; goaltenders having bad seasons end up near the bottom as well as the just-plain-bad goaltenders in the league.

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#51 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 11:39AM
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@ topshelf: Ya but he has been teflon thus far. Usually a guy doesn't go from teflon to seeking employment overnight. Perhaps I'm a little biased - I'm a Darryl Sutter guy (loved his Hawks teams, loved his Sharks teams, love his Flames teams), but I don't see the axe falling on him. It could happen, but I'd be suprised (and possibly upset depending on who replaced him).

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#52 Mini Kipper
April 28 2009, 12:03PM
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:( WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!! :( My hero SUCKS! WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!

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#53 Colin
April 28 2009, 12:50PM
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@ RossCreek:

Given the issue with not dressing enough skaters for several games at the end of the season (which may well have cost them the division) and how short the shelf life for the coaches he hires seems to be, I'd think Darryl's job should be at the least questioned.

And no injuries isn't an excuse, yes the 'lames are a better team with their injured players but they soiled the bed in not even showing up for more than 1 of those playoff losses too.

Not to mention that blowing a 11/12 point lead for the division in 2 months should have been damn near impossible.

The offseason changes for both Alberta teams this year should be interesting at any rate, I hope they link threads on each to both sites.

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#54 Colin
April 28 2009, 12:51PM
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Oh an interesting post Willis. Bad luck to post it on elimination day tho.

I'd be curious to hear about how those expected save #'s are generated.

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#55 DK0
April 28 2009, 12:53PM
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jeff wrote:

Why is it that Lunogo’s projected total was so low? Lower then Rollie, JDD, Budaj? List really has no meaning.

The projected save percentage is based off where the shots were taken from. so Luongo getting a low expected save percentage means that he took way more shots against from high percentage areas this season. for example, if some dream team managed to keep 100% of the shots against a goalie from behind the center line, that goalie would have an expected save percentage of 100%. if some terrible team gave 100% of its shots from exactly 6 feet away from the goalie in the slot, he might be expected to save 50% of them.

The whole point of the method used in these comparison was to try to eliminate the argument that "goalie X has an amazing save percentage because team Y protects the slot so well. goalie Z is the best but he has a crappy team in front of him"

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#56 Chris
April 28 2009, 12:56PM
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Are the OilersNation writers on strike?

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#57 kingsblade
April 28 2009, 12:58PM
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@ RossCreek:

I agree that Darryl Sutter is probably safe for at least another year, but I think he has some very flawed concepts of how to build a team.

AS for Brent, with the first round Flames loss I definitely think the odds improve of him going of Calgary, but I have no idea why you are so confident about it.

I know you believe there was some sort of "plan" but I do not agree. I think they probably talked about it and decided to go different ways. Could it turn out differently this time? Absolutely, but I think it is just as likely that it won't happen.

Brent has always marched to a slightly different drum than his brothers, and anyone who knows them can tell you that. I think that any media guys present here can back me up on that statement as it's not exactly a secret.

He may decide he wants to work under Darryl, and he may decide that is the last thing he wants.

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#58 Archaeologuy
April 28 2009, 12:59PM
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@ Chris: I dunno, I think they all have real jobs (unlike myself).

The journal is reporting that the Oilers have asked permission to talk to Tom Renney.

Now I know he's had some success in NY, but he also had Lundquist as his goalie. It's hard to lose when you have one of the best tenders in the league.

Thoughts?

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#59 Chris
April 28 2009, 01:07PM
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@ Archaeologuy:

I've been accused of dabbling in hyperbole. I've been known to make sweeping generalizations... My gut tells me, however, that Tom Renny is a very similar coach to MacT... So why bother?

Since WE are generating the content...

I find it interesting that Gilbert is comfortable enough with his situation in Edmonton to buy a house.

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#60 Ogden Brother
April 28 2009, 01:10PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

@ Chris: I dunno, I think they all have real jobs (unlike myself). The journal is reporting that the Oilers have asked permission to talk to Tom Renney. Now I know he’s had some success in NY, but he also had Lundquist as his goalie. It’s hard to lose when you have one of the best tenders in the league. Thoughts?

From what I've seen, Rag fans ragged on Renney over alot of the same things Oiler fans ragged on MacT for... I'd give him 18 months before Oil country turned on him.

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#61 Jonathan Willis
April 28 2009, 01:31PM
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Chris wrote:

Are the OilersNation writers on strike?

Not on strike, just somewhat busy elsewhere.

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#62 Jonathan Willis
April 28 2009, 01:32PM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

From what I’ve seen, Rag fans ragged on Renney over alot of the same things Oiler fans ragged on MacT for… I’d give him 18 months before Oil country turned on him.

Expect a lot of: "hey, remember when you used to complain because MacTavish did this..." pieces from me if Renney does get hired.

Actually, expect them regardless. Many of the things MacTavish was attacked for were common NHL head coach moves.

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#63 Harlie
April 28 2009, 01:42PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Chris wrote: Are the OilersNation writers on strike? Not on strike, just somewhat busy elsewhere.

You just scored a TKO with that post on PD! Nice work!

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#64 Chris
April 28 2009, 01:46PM
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@ Jonathan Willis:

That was the single best piece I've read on the Flames in a very long time...

I tip my hat to you sir! When you put you're mind to it Willis; you can spin webs of neagativity more deftley than a giant spider on meth.

Please don't burn the Oilers in similar fashion till I have a chance to legally acquire some antidepressants.

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#65 Ogden Brother
April 28 2009, 01:48PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: From what I’ve seen, Rag fans ragged on Renney over alot of the same things Oiler fans ragged on MacT for… I’d give him 18 months before Oil country turned on him. Expect a lot of: “hey, remember when you used to complain because MacTavish did this…” pieces from me if Renney does get hired. Actually, expect them regardless. Many of the things MacTavish was attacked for were common NHL head coach moves.

Yup and yup... Yet for some reason Oil country figured it was being wronged by it's coach.

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#66 topshelf
April 28 2009, 01:49PM
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Chris wrote:

I find it interesting that Gilbert is comfortable enough with his situation in Edmonton to buy a house.

Where did you hear this?

@ Chris: I agree about Renney. Tambellini clearly stated he wanted an aggressive, emotional team on the ice. Neither of which were present with MacT here. It just doesn't fit.

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#67 topshelf
April 28 2009, 01:54PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Many of the things MacTavish was attacked for were common NHL head coach moves.

The difference here is MacTavish was able to do the same thing over and over again with little to no positive results for 8 years. Let's be honest, Mac T was only crucified here in his last two years. If he couldn't get the job done, why was it wrong to question his decision making and thought process?

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#68 Archaeologuy
April 28 2009, 02:09PM
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@ Jonathan Willis: That was an awesome Eulogy Willis. One day I will commission you to write my own Eulogy (I'll pay in advance, dont worry).

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#69 topshelf
April 28 2009, 02:14PM
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@ Jonathan Willis: That eulogy was epic! I forwarded that link around the office and let me tell you it got many a laugh. Great work!

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#70 Archaeologuy
April 28 2009, 02:21PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Many of the things MacTavish was attacked for were common NHL head coach moves.

was it common for NHL coaches to lose the ear of their clubs and miss the playoffs for 3 consecutive years in a league where more teams make the playoffs than miss it?

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#71 Ogden Brother
April 28 2009, 02:32PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Jonathan Willis wrote: Many of the things MacTavish was attacked for were common NHL head coach moves. was it common for NHL coaches to lose the ear of their clubs and miss the playoffs for 3 consecutive years in a league where more teams make the playoffs than miss it?

That's two different debates.

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#72 Archaeologuy
April 28 2009, 02:36PM
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@ Ogden Brother: i know, it was a little tongue in cheek. All coaches juggle lines and go with guys they trust, I know what Willis was getting at. If the new guy struggles people will say "why did we get rid of MacT for this guy?" Thats a lame statement, but it will be made.

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#73 Chris
April 28 2009, 02:39PM
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@ topshelf: Gilbert was on 630CHED last night with Dan Tencer. The interview is available on thier website as part of the inside sports page.

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#74 topshelf
April 28 2009, 02:45PM
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@ Chris: Thanks.

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#75 Chris
April 28 2009, 02:50PM
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@ topshelf: He bought it just a few days ago... AFTER Tambellini's post season presser. It makes me wonder if Gilbert has had reassurances from management that his spot is secure moving forward.

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#76 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 04:18PM
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I'd have to think Tom Renney would be a better fit with the Flames than the Oil. Just my opinion.

Renney's completely different than Keenan, Playfair & Darryl, and might bring a breath of fresh air. I know I've constantly said Brent Sutter will be their next head coach, but if the thought process is that he would be more of the same and the club wants a different type of voice, I'd say Tom Renney is as good a place as any to start. They've tried the young up-and-comer with Playfair with little success, so I can't see them going that way. Marc Habschied may be an acception, but that may be my personal bias as I like him.

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#77 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 04:58PM
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@ Jonathan Willis: Willis, I take acception to your "eulogy".

First, what was "so convenient" about Rhett Warrener's injury. It's not as though he faked an injury so he wouldn't count against the cap. He was waived and would've played in Quad City and not been a cap hit anyways. Am I missing something?

Secondly, (I'm not even gonna comment on "It's alright, Jarome -- not everyone can be Ryan Malone"), the 17th pick they traded for Cammalleri was replaced with another 1st rounder (25th) & a 2nd rounder in the Tanguay trade. They upgraded the player and only moved down 8 spots.

Thirdly, "Matthew Lombardi, Brandon Prust and a first-round pick? Hah! Don Maloney never knew what hit him. ". Well Maloney only months earlier moved highly regarded D Keith Ballard (and solid veteran D Nick Boynton) to land Jokinen. Given the option, I'd take Ballard over what they now have.

Fourth, Dion Phaneuf is 24 years old. So he had a bad year. Does that mean he'll be terrible forever now? I doubt it. He played with broken ribs since February! Why Keenan insisted on overplaying an injured guy, I don't know.

Fifth, wouldn't you love Regher on YOUR team?

Sixth, does every 1st round pick have to be a mass point-producer? Does it typically, statistically speaking happen? Are you seriously making fun of the Flames pick the SAME year the Oil took the esteemed Jesse Niinimaki. Well that was a great pick, your right what were the Flames thinking when they took Nystrom over Niinimaki?

Seventh, the ol' training bra joke? Seriously? Ahhhh.....Oil fan..... so predictable.

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#78 Jonathan Willis
April 28 2009, 05:43PM
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@ RossCreek:

Just two questions:

1) Are you a Flames fan? 2) Did you seriously expect me to be charitable and even-handed in what was basically an excuse to torch the Flames?

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#79 Eulogy: Remembering the 2008-09 Calgary Flames | Lancilo USA
April 28 2009, 06:44PM
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[...] has decreased for the fifth year in a row or that his save percentage adjusted for team quality is the third-worst among Western Conference starters or that he got even worse during the playoffs, does [...]

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